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As the old saying goes: "Some families are happy and some are sad." Now the price of ginger has increased to 10 yuan per pound. However, the purchase prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat have continued to fall. Recently, orders for imported corn from the United States have been frequently refunded, domestic soybeans have been supported by various agricultural policies, and wheat has been suppressed and is in deep quagmire. Is the future of agriculture about to change? Where should farmers go?

(1) Corn market

Recently, the U.S. Department of Rural Affairs issued a notice stating that the current export sales of corn are 400,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 49%. This week, a 64,300-ton corn shipment from the United States was canceled by my country. During this period, our country also canceled 327,000 tons and 233,000 tons of US corn respectively. Judging from the data on U.S. corn imports in recent years, in fact, my country has experienced many cancellations of U.S. corn.

In May 2021, 330,000 tons of US corn were withdrawn from orders;

In July 2021, 460,000 tons of US corn were withdrawn from orders;

2021 In August, the number of refunds on U.S. corn orders reached 268,000 tons;

In February 2022, the number of refunds on U.S. corn orders reached 375,000 tons;

In April 2023, the number of refunds on U.S. corn orders This time it exceeded 300,000 tons...

my country's original single import, but later diversified import strategy, is also to better ensure food security and reduce the cost of imported food. Just like this week, of the more than 100,000 tons of corn purchased from South Africa, 53,000 tons of feed corn have now arrived in Hong Kong and been supplied to domestic feed companies after passing strict quarantine. Imported corn is diversified and cheap. Against this background, the impact on domestic corn prices will become increasingly obvious.

In recent years, the predicament of Northeastern corn has been highlighted. Northeastern corn production is large and local consumption is low. It requires external procurement to increase local grain prices. However, in recent years, the quality of corn in North China has increased year by year, and the cost of corn has remained high, resulting in reduced profits from corn outsourcing in Northeast China, thereby restraining the rise in corn prices. At the same time, the status of wheat for feeding is stable, and there will still be room for downward adjustments in corn prices in the future. Although it is difficult for corn to return to last year's high price, maintaining it at 2,950-3,000 yuan/ton is still more realistic.

(2) Soybean market

Compared with the turbulent corn market, although soybeans are weak, they have repeatedly received policy support. Whether it is soybean subsidies or state reserve purchases, they are all driving up soybean prices.

Since March this year, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia have increased their soybean purchase plans. In early March, grain depots in various places announced that the soybean purchase prices were 2.765 yuan/jin and 2.775 yuan/jin. At the end of March, the second batch of grain reserves from the State Reserve continued to be collected, and in early April the third batch of grain reserves from the State Reserve soybeans continued to be harvested. The price remained at the previous 2.775 yuan/jin, and the grain harvest period will continue until May. Relevant departments stated that with the support of policies, they will bring new hope to domestic soybeans.

Currently, the cumulative volume of soybeans arriving in my country is approximately 29.0905 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.47%. In May, the expected soybean arrival volume is 9.188 million tons. Compared with corn, which is losing ground, soybeans have a relatively hard background. Therefore, soybean prices may rebound in the future, but it should be noted that U.S. soybeans are now in the planting period, and the weather is suitable, so the planting speed is relatively fast. Therefore, there is no opportunity for soybeans to rise sharply.

(3) Wheat market

Currently, the listing price of wheat is 1.38~1.42 yuan/jin. More and more old wheat is circulating in the market, which has also put great pressure on the wheat market. It is expected that wheat will continue to perform weakly in the short term. The reason is not that flour sales are low, nor is it because the company has no need to replenish inventory. Rather, as grain from grain depots in various places began to gradually flow into flour milling companies, milling companies began to take advantage of the situation to lower prices.

Currently, the listing price of wheat is 1.38~1.42 yuan/jin. More and more old wheat is circulating in the market, which has also put great pressure on the wheat market. It is expected that wheat will continue to perform weakly in the short term. The reason is not that flour sales are low, nor is it because the company has no need to replenish inventory. Rather, as grain from grain depots in various places began to gradually flow into flour milling companies, milling companies began to take advantage of the situation to lower prices.