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Chicken price cycle
According to the market operation supervision system of the Ministry of Commerce, last week (165438+ 10 14-20), the price of edible agricultural products nationwide dropped by 0.5% compared with the previous week.

Among them, the price of pork was 33.27 yuan/kg, down by 1.0%, and the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables dropped by 2.2% to 4.49 yuan/kg.

However, the prices of beef, mutton and eggs have risen to varying degrees. The price of beef increased by 0. 1%, the price of mutton increased by 0.4%, and the price of white striped chicken increased by 0.4%.

Then the question is, why are the prices of pork and vegetables falling, and the prices of edible agricultural products in China are also falling, but the prices of beef, mutton and chicken are rising?

Pork price reduction logic

In the past month or so, the average price of domestic pigs and pork has continued to decline.

The decline in pork prices has already laid the groundwork as early as July and August this year.

In the first half of this year, pig prices continued to decline, and farmers' losses increased day by day. In the worst case, a pig will lose about 500 yuan. However, in the second half of this year, with the recovery of pork consumption demand, pig prices began to rise. Because farmers are generally optimistic about the market outlook, secondary fattening pig farms enter the market and buy pigs weighing more than160kg for secondary fattening, which is also an important reason for the continuous rise of China from July to June.

After entering 1 1, the domestic pig price "can't afford to fall", and the farmers are reluctant to sell, and the mood of waiting for the market before the Spring Festival begins to loosen. On the one hand, the group pig farms want to complete the annual slaughter task as soon as possible, on the other hand, they respond to the call of the state to speed up the slaughter of pigs, which makes the supply of pigs in the market continue to increase, and the slaughter weight of pigs also rises because of the centralized slaughter of large chemical fertilizers. The continuous supply of frozen pork in central and local reserves is superimposed to supply pork.

On the demand side, the production of bacon and sausage did not start because of the weather, and the consumption of terminal catering was sluggish because of the epidemic. In addition, the price of pork is at a "high price" around 25 yuan, and the overall consumption of pork is sluggish.

Under the influence of the dual factors of "increasing supply and decreasing demand", the domestic pig price continues to fall.

The logic of vegetable price reduction

Last week, the average price of vegetables dropped by 2.2%, among which lettuce, celery and Chinese cabbage dropped by 7.6%, 6.4% and 6.3% respectively.

The data shows that the decline is not obvious, but the market situation is far worse than this.

According to media reports, the wholesale price of coriander in 2 yuan last year was only 1 yuan, and the wholesale price of Chinese cabbage sold last month was only 0.3 yuan, while the wholesale price of pumpkin in Beibei, 6 yuan was only about 3 yuan.

The decline in vegetable prices is mainly due to several reasons:

1. Affected by the epidemic, restaurants and restaurants were required to close down, which made the market demand for vegetables drop.

2. Traffic is blocked, and vegetables in various places are unsalable and can only be sold at low prices.

3. Some vegetable vendors forced the price down, which led to a further decline in vegetable prices.

The vegetable market was on the high side in the same period last year, and the growers were optimistic about this year's expectations. With the increase of superimposed fine weather, the vegetable output increased obviously.

5. The high temperature in summer delayed the planting of some vegetables, and a variety of vegetables went on the market, causing trampling.

Although they are all rising, the logic of the price increase of beef, mutton and chicken is different.

The logic of beef and mutton price increase

In the second half of the year, the price of live pigs was reluctant to sell at the breeding end, and the price of cattle and sheep continued to rise with the help of the recovery of the consumer end. On the one hand, the high productivity of cattle and sheep, on the other hand, the high price of beef and mutton has affected the terminal consumption.

However, the breeding cost of cattle and sheep continues to rise because of the rising feed price, which leads to the continuous loss of cattle and sheep farmers and the continuous decline of cattle and sheep breeding ability in the market.

After entering 1 1 month, the consumption demand of beef and mutton has improved with the decrease of temperature in various places. The price of pork was as high as about a catty of 25 yuan before, and the price difference between pork and beef and mutton has been tightened, which further stimulated the market demand for beef and mutton.

In the context of the decline in the supply of beef and mutton caused by the decline in production capacity in the early stage, the price of beef and mutton ushered in a slight increase.

The logic of price increase of white striped chicken

Unlike the price of cattle and sheep, which fell first and then rose, the price of white striped chicken in China maintained an upward trend in the second half of the year. Due to the continuous increase of broiler prices, the profit of broiler breeding reached 2. 15 yuan/chicken, up 2 1 1.98% year-on-year.

There are several reasons for the increase in broiler prices:

1, the broiler breeding cycle is short, and the increase in feed prices has a greater and faster impact on broiler prices. Due to the recent price fluctuation of corn and soybean meal, the cost of broiler breeding has recently increased by 1.23% month-on-month, and the increase in feed cost has provided a high support for the price increase of broilers.

2. As the profit of broiler breeding continues to be at a high level, the price of chicken seedlings rises, and the increase in cost drives the price of broiler chickens to rise.

3. As the cheapest meat (pig, chicken, cattle, sheep), the upward price of other meats will drive the improvement of chicken consumption demand, which in turn will drive the price up.

4. Affected by the epidemic, the pace of slaughterhouse construction and transportation was disrupted.

5. Recently, residents' willingness to hoard goods has increased, and dealers have also stocked in advance, further pushing up the price of white striped chicken.

Next, what is the price trend of vegetables and meat?

Vegetables

With the passage of time, the centralized listing of open-air vegetables will end, and the subsequent vegetable supply will turn to greenhouse vegetables. Comparatively speaking, the yield of vegetables in greenhouse is not so high and the cost is higher. Under the superposition of the possible improvement of the epidemic situation and the arrival of favorable consumption such as the Spring Festival, the price of vegetables is expected to rise.

Meat.

After the weather turns cold, it will enter the peak season of meat demand, but the difference of supply side will still lead to the differentiation of various meat price trends.

1, pork will continue to decline because of the centralized listing of big fat, standard pigs and small standard pigs, and the supply is at a high level.

2. In June 5438+065438+ 10, the price of chicken will remain high, which is lower than the historical level in the same period. Coupled with the boost of consumer demand, some institutions even believe that the price of chicken in 2023 will remain high for a long time.

3. In terms of beef and mutton, considering that winter is the peak demand season for beef and mutton, and the previous decline in beef and mutton production capacity, although its price will decline due to the decline in pork prices, the decline is relatively limited.