After 2023, the attitude of China and the Philippines towards the South China Sea began to be subtle. By March 2023, the People's Liberation Army had increased its military deployment in the South China Sea. Judging from the airport ceiling map exposed by CCTV, J-16 has been stationed in Yongxing Island in the South China Sea.

China People's Liberation Army troops stationed in the South China Sea

Yongxing Island in the South China Sea is a very delicate area between China and the Philippines. It is one of China's "iron triangles" in the South China Sea. China's deployment of naval and air forces here means putting pressure on some countries in the South China Sea. As far as China's diplomatic relations with neighboring countries in the South China Sea are concerned, the object of China's pressure is the Philippines.

For the Philippines, J-16' s entry into the South China Sea is no small matter. Because among all fighters in service in China, J-16 is the only main fighter with ground capability. China deployed J-16 to Yongxing Island to announce to the Philippines that it has the ability to strike the Philippines quickly.

The J-16 poses a greater threat to the Philippines than other fighters in China. Because J -20, J-1 1 and J-10 are very advanced for the Philippines, but these fighters have air superiority after all and cannot attack the ground troops or facilities in the Philippines.

If the Philippines has other ideas, China may have the following two actions.

One is that the H -6 bomber is deployed in the South China Sea, and the other is that J-16 or H -6 is deployed in Huangyan Island. On the first point, this means that China is going to carpet bomb a country in the South China Sea. Once the South China Sea changes, sparks will be everywhere.

Second, it will enable China to carry out military strikes more quickly. Although Yongxing Island is located in the South China Sea Iron Triangle, it is still on our side. This shows that the appearance of J-16 in the South China Sea is only a warning to the Philippines. If the Philippines pays attention to this warning, China will naturally slow down.

However, if China deploys military forces on Huangyan Island, which is closer to the Philippines, especially J-16, which can kill the ground and air, it is equivalent to putting a gun on the "forehead" of the Philippines. By then, public opinion and various interest groups in the Philippines will blow up the pot and have a great impact on Philippine society.

Why has China-Philippines relations changed?

In fact, relations between the Philippines and China have always been bad. After all, no one wants his neighbor to be a huge country. Any country wants to be surrounded by a bunch of small countries, or like Canada is to the United States.

It's just that China's naval power has developed strongly, and the Philippines dare not complain. However, the relationship between China and the Philippines has changed again, largely because of the political changes in the Philippines.

Philippine President Duterte is very pragmatic, and both domestic government affairs and diplomacy are based on reality. I don't say how strategic this person is, but I still know the consequences of the Philippines angering our country.

Therefore, when he was in office, he tried to avoid the contradiction between China and the Philippines and turned a blind eye to the anti-China sentiment at home. If anti-China sentiment breaks through control, he will also take the means of snapping up.

Externally, when other countries provoke China-Philippines relations, Duterte will also cleverly avoid it. For example, when the United States talked with Duterte about the so-called "South China Sea arbitration case", Duterte always said that "China and the Philippines are currently shelving disputes."

But Philippine President Marcos Jr., he is not as practical as Duterte. On the other hand, the United States believes that the political situation in the Philippines has changed and there is an opportunity. It hopes to increase investment to widen the gap between China and the Philippines and make Sino-Philippine relations tense.

Therefore, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion that the problem of Sino-Philippine relations is that there is a gap between China and the Philippines on the one hand, and the United States is behind it on the other. These two factors are hard to disappear in China's existing means. Therefore, the future development of China-Philippines relations still depends on the political situation in the Philippines and whether the political situation in the Philippines can suppress these two external factors.

Pessimistic future and the possibility of the breakdown of Sino-Philippine relations

China's behavior is at most a kind of pressure on the Philippines. If the political situation in the Philippines can understand the consequences of a military conflict with China and proceed from the national interests of the Philippines, then the Philippines naturally knows what to do and nothing will happen. But the biggest problem is that the political situation in the Philippines, especially President Marcos Jr., may not put the interests of the Philippines first.

Because little Marcos' family has a criminal record, his father, old Marcos Ferdinand Emmanuel Edralin Marcos, as the former president of the Philippines, is famous for corruption.

During his reign, this guy was very corrupt, and his family had tons of gold. Later, because of election fraud, old Marcos was overthrown by the Philippine people's revolutionary forces and finally ran to the United States.

President Marcos Jr. of the Philippines paved the way with his father's embezzled money and became president all the way. Although China has no intention to interfere in the internal affairs of the Philippines, the son of such a big corrupt official paved the way with the money his father earned. Moreover, this kind of thing is well known, and people can't help but complain about the wonderful work of the Philippines.

Therefore, the Marcos family with this "family style" may be thinking about receiving the benefits of the United States. When China called, he went straight to the United States like old Marcos. As for the Philippines, what does it have to do with the Marcos family? People have gone to America to count their money.

It is unrealistic for our country to reason with such a country where the president is in power. Therefore, in the future, China-Philippines relations are likely to turn to a bad result.

There is another way to prevent this from happening in our country, and that is isolation. International public opinion is that China and the United States must have a war. The attitude of countries around the South China Sea is that China and the United States fight best in Northeast Asia. After Japan and South Korea participate, they will also undertake a wave of "high-end industries" of Japan and South Korea.

Therefore, the Philippines' act of dragging the United States into the situation in the South China Sea actually violates the interests of most countries in the South China Sea. It may be better to isolate it than to directly threaten it militarily.