Text/"Autobots" commentator? Ying Zhao
On March 19, according to the notification from the National Health Commission, there were zero new cases of COVID-19 in Hubei and Wuhan. On March 20th, the "vernal equinox" solar term has arrived, and spring has come! After the virus attack, the whole country was almost frozen, everything recovered, and China's social economy restarted. The topic of concern of the government and society has gradually shifted from fighting the epidemic to how to revitalize the society and economy.
In a sense, accelerating China's social and economic recovery is also a strategic issue whether China can seize the opportunity to make up for the serious losses in the past two months and take advantage of the situation. In this regard, the government has done a good job, and large state-owned enterprises have played a mainstay role, making China's society and economy stand firm when the cold current strikes. For example, during the crisis, the China government and large state-owned enterprises maintained the operation of national and even global infrastructure (including energy, transportation, information and communication), thus avoiding the major trauma of China's basic social and economic system; The China government and large state-owned enterprises have maintained the price stability of the country's basic means of subsistence and consumer goods; The government of China and large state-owned enterprises urgently mobilized to meet the stable supply of basic medical equipment and medicines needed to fight the epidemic and to support other countries. Now, China has entered the period of restarting the whole social economy. It is urgent to resume work and production, and various government support measures and policies have been introduced one after another. I believe we can see the results in a month or so.
Looking up at the starry sky, the old man has some scattered ideas about resuming work and production, and writing them for reference from all walks of life can also be regarded as making some contributions to the country.
In the recovery and production stages, the country should achieve two turning points:
From the rapid "freezing", relatively static and anti-epidemic state in the crisis response stage to the dynamic of preventing the epidemic from rebounding, starting social and economic development and restoring the daily state. In the near future, the latter state will be the normal state of social and economic operation. How to institutionalize and preserve some practices in the crisis period in order to benefit the long term, prevent accidents and gradually lift the strict regulations in the crisis period is a challenge facing the current government.
The government led the resumption of work and production, and gradually turned to the market-led resumption of work and production in the second half of the transition period. After the government initially starts to resume work through tangible hands (for example, the government directly intervenes in the transportation of migrant workers and exempts small and medium-sized enterprises from various financial and tax burdens), it is necessary to assess the situation, gradually lift strict administrative control and give play to the role of the market. The resumption of work in the second half of the year should be gradually completed through the market mechanism.
During the transition period of resumption of work and production, economic start-up and recovery, the following points are worth considering:
First of all, according to the epidemic situation, the administrative control should be gradually lifted to make the social and economic system work again, which should be placed at the top of all policies. At present, the government has introduced various fiscal and monetary policies, which are enough to meet the short-term needs of enterprises. However, in order to make enterprises move, it is ultimately necessary to rely on market demand to improve the administrative and physical isolation between people and things in the past two months and gradually "thaw". Otherwise, people can't get out, logistics is not smooth, and tax reduction and financial easing are also futile.
At present, the fiscal, taxation and financial policies promulgated by the government are strong enough, but only by lifting administrative control can they produce results. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent excessive "flooding" at present. Excessive release of money is ineffective and will accelerate inflation.
Secondly, in 2020 or even 202 1 year, the domestic market can only be regarded as the main driving force for economic development. Based on the domestic market, steadily explore the international market. Even if the international market can gradually recover (fortunately, there is no huge economic crisis), it will be in the second half of the year. With the disappearance of the epidemic, the domestic market should promote people's consumption as soon as possible. Local government officials paid full attention to this. For example, leaders of municipal governments in Nanjing and other places take the lead in spending money on the streets.
By the way, Zeng Guofan once led officials to go boating on the Qinhuai River to restore the prosperity of Nanjing. Ceng Wenzheng, who has always advocated Neo-Confucianism, did this only to start consumption and enhance popularity. At present, demand-side restart should be higher than supply-side restart.
Third, we should attach great importance to the recovery of the tertiary industry. The tertiary industry ranks first in China's economic structure. It is relatively easy to restart the tertiary industry, and it is relatively easy to recover, and the recovery of employment is relatively rapid and effective. It is in line with the logic of economic development to start the tertiary industry first and then promote the development of the secondary industry and the primary industry. In response to the epidemic, the tertiary industry has also produced a large number of new formats and new demands, which will certainly bring new impetus to China's economic recovery.
Fourth, in the recovery of the secondary industry, the recovery of the physical industrial chain is more important than other aspects. At present, the main problem faced by manufacturing enterprises is not the return of migrant workers, but the smooth operation of industrial chain and the guarantee of supply chain. The first half of the epidemic is mainly about the protection and recovery of domestic supply chain, while the problems in the second half are mainly from abroad. The economic operation of developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea has almost frozen, and enterprises have stopped working. Some countries are even hostile to China, which will lead to problems in overseas supply chains, and many key components and raw materials may be cut off and in short supply. The government must start emergency measures, organize manpower, make a list of key parts and raw materials that may be out of supply or in short supply, and organize domestic enterprises to make up for the shortcomings of the supply chain through administrative means.
During the post-war economic recovery period, the Japanese government adopted a "tilted production model" to promote industrial recovery, which is worth learning. In short, it is to find the key industries and key links related to the operation of the whole industrial system, which will be started by the government, thus driving the recovery of the whole economic system. According to this idea, the Japanese government started with the coal industry, which led to the recovery of the steel industry and successfully promoted the restart of the industrial system.
Finally, I want to talk about the restart of the automobile industry. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the automobile industry has become worse, and the sales volume has fallen sharply. In order to restart the automobile industry, the state has successively introduced many policies to promote automobile consumption, but no obvious effect has been seen. This is because all policies have a role, and this role must be based on the premise that the entire social and economic system gradually removes administrative control and restores the broad and diverse communication space between people. A few days ago, the reporter asked me if the current "online car sales" could replace 4S shops to sell cars, and I replied: impossible. The reason lies in the characteristics of automobile consumption and the difficulty for consumers to go out at present. I estimate that with the lifting of administrative control, the convenience of going out (including traveling) will be restored, people will enter 4S stores again, and car consumption will have a small climax, but it will not be too prosperous all year round. After all, the decline for two consecutive years represents a certain trend. The performance of the automobile industry is passable, and it will wait until next year. At present, the automobile industry should be alert to the problems of foreign supply chains, and this is a high probability event!
The epidemic situation and economic fluctuation in China are just the opposite to those in developed countries, leaving a time lag for China. If China can seize this time difference, it will be conducive to economic recovery.
However, whether we can grasp the time difference and realize the current government's idea of restarting the economy depends on a rather thorny issue: how to effectively and decisively resist the external input of the epidemic.
From 0: 00 to 24: 00 on March 18, 34 imported confirmed cases were newly reported (Beijing 2 1 case, Guangdong 9, Shanghai 2, Heilongjiang 1 case and Zhejiang 1 case). As of 24: 00 on March 18, a total of 89 imported confirmed cases/KLOC-0 were reported. If this situation continues, it will not only be difficult for China to quickly abolish strict administrative regulations, but also affect the psychological expectations of enterprises for economic recovery and people's consumption, and miss the hard-won time difference.
Both the epidemic situation and the possible crisis have hit the international division of labor system and the supply chain attached to it. Epidemic and capital have the same sense of smell and can identify low-risk areas. Maintaining the normal operation of China's economy is its greatest ability to resist risks. (Text/"Autobots" commentator? Ying Zhao, part of the image source network) Copyright statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of Autobots, and the copyright belongs to Autobots.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.