It has been rising for 20 days in a row, and the corn is getting more and more fierce!
Since the beginning of 20021,the price of corn has been rising all the way, and the market once broke through the 3000 mark. Due to the increase of pig production capacity in the market and the increase of feed corn raw materials, the resistance of traders to sell increased, and the price of corn remained high in the first and second quarters. However, with the strengthening of market regulation, the increase of auction of temporary storage corn, the extensive use of feed substitutes and the rapid follow-up of imported corn, the price of corn rose briefly after entering the third quarter, and with the gradual listing of new season corn, the price of corn ushered in a large-scale cooling.
I thought that with the large number of corn in the new season, the price increase of corn would come to an end and the pressure on pig farmers would be reduced. Surprisingly, however, the price of corn has dropped a lot. With a large number of corn on the market in autumn, the price of corn actually rose against the trend at the end of 10. As of the first ten days of 1 1, corn has been rising for 20 consecutive days, and the market still shows no signs of stabilizing. On the contrary, with the increase of snowfall in Northeast China, the anti-price mentality of grassroots farmers has been continuously strengthened, leading to a new wave of soaring corn prices.
According to the data fed back by the market, the corn in the futures market has broken through the 2700 yuan mark, and the corn in the spot market is approaching the 3000 yuan mark. Especially in Shandong, affected by the snowstorm in the northeast, it is more difficult for corn to enter the customs, and the number of vehicles for deep processing to the factory is greatly reduced. Over 15, the deep processing enterprises raise the purchase price by 40~70 yuan/ton in a single day. The corn prices of Binzhou Longhai, Binzhou Wang Xi and Zaozhuang Hengren have reached 3,000 yuan/ton, namely 1.5 yuan/kg. You know, corn in Shandong has increased by more than 20 times.
Not only did the price of corn in Shandong rise sharply, but the price of corn in North China and Northeast China also joined the rising channel. Among them, four grain enterprises in North China raised the price of corn, namely, Hou Yuan in Mengzhou, Zhumadian, 20 yuan in Cangzhou, with the price of 2820~2860 yuan/ton, and Lihua Guangyu Starch in Funing, Hebei, with the price of 20~30 yuan, with the price of 2530~2900 yuan/ton. In addition, Heilongjiang Longjiang Fufeng and Jilin Cargill Biochemical also raised the 40 yuan per ton of corn, and the grain enterprises quoted 2340~2420 yuan/ton. It can be seen that the increase of corn price has gradually spread from Shandong to all parts of the country, and there are signs of intensification.
Why is the new grain on the market and the corn continues to soar?
Every year from September to 165438+ 10, it is the season of autumn corn harvest and listing in northern China. During this period, from the harvest of new grain in September to the full listing in165438+1October, because of the influx of new corn in the market, the price usually fluctuates to some extent, which is also called the price trough in the industry. However, the performance of corn this year is quite different. Corn prices, which should have fluctuated and fallen, did the opposite. What the hell is going on here? Personally, it is mainly caused by three aspects.
On the one hand, the listing of new grain failed to meet expectations. Either because of the weather, or because of price resistance and reluctance to sell, the number of corn listed this year has not reached the expected target of the market. Due to the local disasters in North China, Henan and Shandong, corn production is reduced and the quality is polarized, and the number of corn is not active enough. Due to the early rainfall and late snowfall in Northeast China, the corn harvest was delayed. So far, only 1% of corn in Northeast China has been listed, and a large number of corn is still in the hands of grassroots farmers.
On the other hand, the sharp rise of chemical fertilizers and agricultural materials has increased the cost of farmers' growing grain, and generally has a psychology of resisting price for new grain. This year, the prices of fertilizers and pesticides have risen sharply, and many farmers are complaining. Moreover, with the rising price of coal energy, the drying cost of corn in Northeast China has gradually increased, and grassroots farmers are reluctant to sell and wait for growth. The amount of new grain entering the market is relatively small, far lower than the same period last year. Grain enterprises can't receive grain, and they are more keen on raising food prices.
Of course, one of the most influential factors at present is the large-scale cooling of the cold wave in the north. Originally, with the improvement of the weather and the increase in the listing of new grain in Northeast China, the shortage of corn supply in North China will form a short-term complementarity. Unexpectedly, after entering beginning of winter, affected by a new round of heavy snowfall in the north, the domestic corn circulation was further blocked. Heavy snow blocked roads, making transportation difficult, making it difficult for northeast corn to enter the customs, and the number of vehicles for deep processing in Shandong was greatly reduced.
However, due to the more wait-and-see of grain enterprises in the early stage, the inventory quantity is relatively small. At present, the corn supply of grain enterprises is short-term, and there is a certain demand for replenishing stocks. With the new round of rising pig prices, feed enterprises are enthusiastic about stocking, and are also adjusting their formulas to increase the consumption of high-quality corn, which has stimulated the demand for feed corn. In deep processing, in order to ensure the completion of the operating rate and attract the arrival of grain sources, they are also raising prices and joining the grain grabbing army. In June, corn prices continued to rise at 5438+065438+ 10.
Since corn has risen so much, can it replicate last year's "bull market"?
At present, the price of corn seems to be rising well, and the market shows signs of going to a "bull market" last year, but the biggest difference is that the supply and demand of corn have changed, and there have been two different directions: industrial demand and channel storage and demand. In addition, with the strengthening of policy regulation, the speculation space of market hot money is limited, and it is unlikely that the subsequent corn price will replicate last year's bull market, and there is even the risk of overcapacity and market decline, which is also a direction that our traders and farmers who have not sold grain need to pay attention to.
First of all, talk about the supply of corn. This year, China's corn planting area has increased greatly, especially in Northeast China. Due to the influence of corn price increase last year, the planting area has increased a lot. Although Henan, Shandong, North China and other places, affected by rainfall and waterlogging, corn production has declined. However, due to the bumper harvest of corn in Northeast China, the overall domestic corn production has not been greatly affected. Not surprisingly, the total output of corn this year is still growing continuously.
Secondly, talk about the demand for corn. Corn is a wonderful flower in all grain varieties, with a very large volume, but its price elasticity is also very good, mainly because of its wide use and long industrial chain, and the price trend will be difficult to grasp. The use of corn in China is mainly divided into two aspects, one is feed demand, accounting for more than 60%, and the other is deep processing of corn, accounting for more than 30%.
Although the consumption of feed corn is large, with the high price of live pigs falling, the enthusiasm of pig farmers is insufficient and the elimination of fertile sows is accelerated, which has actually limited the growth of feed corn demand. In the future, with the acceleration of pig production capacity and the reduction of pig stock, it is not surprising that the demand for feed corn will even decrease. On the other hand, with the rising cost of breeding, the country is also estimating that pig enterprises will increase the consumption of stored wheat and rice, and the increase of substitute products will further occupy the consumption space of feed corn.
Deep processing enterprises are mainly used for the processing and production of starch and alcohol. However, according to the data in recent years, in order to ensure the stability of feed corn, the state has restricted the development of ethanol corn deep processing and cut down some ethanol deep processing projects. Moreover, the amount of starch is relatively stable, and the impact on the whole commercialization of corn will be very limited. So it can be seen that the demand for corn has not increased much. On the contrary, with the decline of feed corn demand, the overall demand shrinks.
Therefore, as far as the current corn supply demand is concerned, it is almost impossible for corn to replicate last year's bull market. However, considering the contradiction of regional supply structure of corn, the price of corn in Northeast China is still supported by the rising weather and logistics and transportation costs, especially the high-quality corn may rise further because of tight supply.
However, with the improvement of the subsequent weather, the heavy volume of corn in Northeast China and the emergence of policy-based grain source auctions, the risk of shocks falling back is not ruled out. Grain farmers should also make reasonable arrangements for grain production progress according to their own actual conditions. What do you think of this?