Sheep prices have been depressed for more than a year, and now they are also losing money.
Although milk has not fallen below the cost price, it is close to the cost price. A ranch with dozens of cows will lose hundreds of thousands a month.
The price of some freshwater fish also fell below the cost line.
What happened to aquaculture? As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in protein increases, but the price falls instead of rising.
The price of live pigs fell below the cost line
65438 10/8, the price of live pigs soared, rising across the board, with the price in Northeast China rising by 0.3-0.375 yuan, reaching 7.3-8.2 yuan.
North China rose 0.2-0.325 yuan, and the price came to 7.6-8.3 yuan.
East China prices rose by 0.2-0.3 yuan, and prices came to 7.7-8.5 yuan.
Prices in Southwest China rose by 0.25-0.4 yuan, and prices came to 7. 1-8.2 yuan.
Central China rose 0.3-0.55 yuan, and the price came to 7.5-8.4 yuan.
Although the price of live pigs in China has risen sharply, the national average price is only around 7.6 yuan. Based on the current feed cost price, the cost of pig breeding is as high as 8-5 8.5 yuan, but the current pig price is still below the cost line, and more than half of the pig farms in the market are at a loss.
There are several reasons why the pig price falls below the cost line:
First, because irrational pigs and secondary fattening pigs are not completely slaughtered, the market still has a certain inventory, and the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and the enthusiasm of farmers to slaughter is improved.
Second, pork consumption is affected by the epidemic and has not yet returned to normal levels.
Thirdly, due to the strong cost control ability of the group pig farms, the pig price is still above the cost line, and the pig slaughter rate of the group pig farms remains at a normal level.
However, some insiders predict that with the recent sharp drop in pork prices, the surplus of live pigs in the market will accelerate.
In addition, if the pig price falls below the cost line, it will inevitably lead to the reluctance of the breeding end to sell, and the subsequent pig price is expected to rise, but the extent of the rise is probably limited, and the ideal state will return to the cost line of 8-8.5 yuan.
The price of live sheep can't fall.
The price system shows that the small-tailed Han sheep kebab 12/ kg, the fine-wool mutton kebab 12.3 yuan/kg and Xinmin sheep 12.6 yuan/kg in Tangxian county, Hebei province. Shandong bird's nest small-tailed Han sheep kebab 12. 1 yuan/kg, fine-wool sheep kebab 12 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 13.3 yuan/kg.
As two important fattening sheep bases in China, its low price represents the low price of China sheep.
Sheep prices have been depressed for more than a year. After the recent optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, terminal catering consumption has resumed, and the price of superimposed mutton has decreased with the decline of sheep prices, further stimulating the demand for mutton consumption, but the price of sheep still cannot afford to fall. I think there are several main reasons:
1, sheep production capacity is still at a high level, and the current production capacity is still in a state of oversupply.
2. The price of live sheep continues to be low, and farmers speed up the clearing and even eliminate ewes, further increasing the market supply pressure.
3. Although the price of mutton decreased, the price of pork decreased even more, which seized the mutton consumption market.
4. Affected by the epidemic, terminal catering consumption is sluggish, far from reaching the normal level.
In a short period of time, it is difficult to change the state that the production capacity of live sheep exceeds demand, and it is difficult for sheep prices to stop falling and rebound.
However, after the consumption during the Spring Festival and the subsequent recovery of catering consumption, the price of sheep that was originally expected to change in June is expected to rise ahead of schedule.
Dairy farmers start the mode of "pouring milk to kill cattle"
Recently, the reference price of raw milk trading in China has been lowered from the previous minimum of not less than 3.93 yuan/kg to 3.85 yuan/kg, which is almost equal to the cost price of 3.5-3.8 yuan/kg in the north.
It seems that the purchase price of milk is above the cost line, but dairy farmers are already losing money. According to a dairy farmer who has raised cows for more than 30 years, the daily breeding cost of a cow is around 80 yuan, and a ranch with dozens of cows will lose hundreds of thousands of yuan a month.
The main reason for dairy farmers' losses is the high cost of breeding. In order to ensure the nutrition of cows, cows eat mostly tender corn with ears. With the increase of corn price, the forage cost of dairy cows is as high as 800 yuan/ton.
On the other hand, the consumer side is sluggish. Since last year, yogurt sales have been in a state of decline. Recently, with the students' holiday, the supply of school milk stagnated, the output of dairy production enterprises declined, and the consumption of raw milk plummeted.
In addition, to alleviate the short-term oversupply of raw milk, the inventory is also abundant. It is reported that many small and medium-sized dairy enterprises may no longer need to buy raw milk from pastures in 2023.
Affected by sufficient supply, many dairy farmers have not received the milk contract for the new year after the milk contract expires, so they have to dump the milk. In addition, in order to reduce losses, dairy farmers can only kill cattle and sell beef. Although this kind of behavior can't recover the loss, at least there is no need to continue to lose money in the future. After all, cows have to eat when they are alive, and the cost of eating a cow alone is tens of yuan.
To make matters worse, due to the high powder spraying inventory of dairy enterprises, many people in the industry predict that the domestic raw milk price will further decline in 2023, which may take 3-4 years to improve, even in an ideal state, it will take 2025.
The price of some freshwater fish is very low.
It is understood that the feed coefficient will generally increase by 0.05-0. 1 in 2022. Due to the continuous increase of feed cost and price, some freshwater fish farmers have faced losses to varying degrees.
The price of freshwater fish is low and difficult to rise. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the circulation in various places is generally low, on the other hand, the aquaculture quantity is high, which makes the supply of freshwater fish market exceed the demand.
Take California bass for example. At present, the average culture cost of California bass is about 1 1 yuan/kg, while the market price is only 10 yuan/kg.
There are two views in the industry on the subsequent price trend of freshwater fish:
One view is that the New Year's Day just passed failed to drive the market to pick up, so it is difficult to form a favorable consumption during the Spring Festival, and the overall market consumption will continue to be sluggish.
Another view is that with the passing of the peak of infection in various places, market consumption is expected to recover, and a wave of consumption peak is expected during the Spring Festival, which in turn will drive up the price of fish.