Recently, the price of live pigs has skyrocketed across the board, which is overwhelming. On May 2, he suddenly changed his face and the warning sounded again. The egg market has also started to ebb from the skyrocketing, and it has dropped significantly; Sheep prices continued to fall, and farmers turned from meager profits to losses.
What is the situation of aquaculture? What will happen in the market outlook? Share with everyone:
First, the pig market quickly changed its face.
In May, the pig market only continued to rise 1 day. I thought May would be a month for pig farmers to make a comeback, but on May 2nd, the pig market suddenly changed its face. Although the price of live pigs in some provinces is still rising, there has been a large-scale decline:
The price of live pigs in southwest, south China, central China and other central and southern regions remained strong. In Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan provinces, plus Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces, the price of live pigs rose by 0.05-0.45 yuan/kg, of which Guangdong rose by 0.45 yuan/kg and 8.6 yuan/kg. Yunnan rose by 0.22 yuan, 7. 15 yuan/kg; Other rising provinces rose by 5 points-1 gross.
While the increase narrowed, pig prices in North China, East China and other provinces and cities fell 10. Although the decline was less than 1 cent, many provinces fell, giving the market an early warning signal.
The sudden change of pig price should be a normal market reaction. The reasons are as follows: First, the pig price started to fluctuate in 6 yuan per catty in the middle and late April, and now it has increased by about 1.5 yuan per catty in 7.5 yuan, which requires a callback process to consolidate the market.
Second, due to the rising price of pigs, the main body of breeding has accelerated the slaughter of pigs, which has led to the slaughter enterprises lowering the price of pigs.
Third, the demand factor, the rise in pig prices has led to an increase in pork prices. In contrast, at present, the price of pork in the whole country has returned to above 10 yuan, with an increase of 2% and 5% per catty, resulting in shrinking consumption.
With regard to the market outlook, after the fluctuation of pig prices, there is a momentum to continue to rise, because at present, important indicators such as the number of live pigs, the number of fertile sows and the number of piglets are undergoing positive changes, and the market in the second half of the year can not be wrong. Target position 10 yuan/kg, pork target position 15 yuan/kg.
Second, the price of eggs has fallen sharply.
Throughout April, the egg market was bright, from the price in 4.5 yuan to 5.0-5.5 yuan. The logic of the rise is because of the epidemic. Due to the long shelf life of eggs, residents in some areas hoard factors; There are also factors that lead to insufficient supply because of the low stock of laying hens and the limited ability to actually supply the market. For a time, the price of eggs soared, and the retail price of eggs in some areas even surpassed that of 6 yuan.
However, during the period of 5. 1, the price of eggs came to an abrupt end and there was an obvious diving market. Even the price of eggs in some areas has dropped by a few cents a day: the price of eggs in Dayang Road in Beijing has dropped by 0.55 yuan per catty, while the mainstream price is 5.22 yuan per catty; The mainstream price in Beijing dropped by 0.33 yuan, 5.29 yuan/kg; Harbin, Heilongjiang 1 gross, 4.70 yuan/kg; Chaoyang, Liaoning dropped 0.34 yuan, 5. 13 yuan/kg; Tangshan, Chengde and other places in Hebei dropped by 0.33 yuan, and the mainstream price was 5. 10-5.20 yuan/kg; Cangzhou drops 2 hairs, 5.0 yuan/kg; Most parts of Henan fell by 0.22 yuan, which has fallen below the 5 yuan mark, and the mainstream price is 4.85-4.95 yuan/kg; Shandong Weifang, Qingdao, Linyi and other large areas fell 1-2 gross, and the mainstream price was 4.88-5.05 yuan/kg; Some areas in Anhui, Suqian and other provinces also had a decline of about 1 cent.
From the perspective of the egg price market, due to the huge increase in recent years, the short-term consumption has dropped sharply, and the number of eggs stranded in various links is on the high side, and the downward pressure on egg prices is greater in the short term.
Third, the price of sheep continued to fall.
In 2022, the performance of sheep price was poor, which continued the downward trend of last year and showed a downward trend. Many farmers said that raising sheep now not only does not make money, but also loses money, and plans not to raise it.
There are also some farmers who say that the price of sheep is so low now that the scale of breeding can be expanded, and those who plan to raise sheep can also start now.
Can we set foot in the sheep market now Let's take a look at the current market. Many places fell below 13 yuan: Han mutton kebabs in Tangxian County, Hebei Province 12.0 yuan/kg; Xinmin sheep 12.6 yuan/kg; Fine-wool sheep skewers 12.4 yuan/kg; Henan hua county sheep 13.0 yuan/kg; The price of eliminated sheep in Jining, Shandong Province has dropped to 9.5- 10.0 yuan/kg; The price of mutton has also dropped a lot, including Shaanxi Gong Wei mutton 520-550 yuan/only; Female mutton 450 yuan/kg; A male lamb weighing 30 kg in Anshan, Liaoning Province, 6 10 yuan/lamb.
Although the price of sheep is not so good now, the price of mutton is not low, at least higher than that of 35 yuan, and the mainstream price is still around 40 yuan, which is still difficult for ordinary families to consume.
At present, sheep prices are at a low point. Personally, generally speaking, the cycle of sheep will delay the cycle of pigs. If the rising cycle of pigs starts in the second half of the year and the price cycle of sheep starts in the first half of 2023, then according to this logic, I personally think it is more reliable to get involved in the sheep industry now. I don't know what you think.
On May 2, the warning of pig price changed face, the price of eggs "skyrocketed and plummeted", and the price of sheep suffered huge losses. what do you think? Welcome to express your views for farmers' reference.
# Today's national hog price #