On April 28, Wei Baigang, director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, revealed that at the end of the first quarter, compared with the end of last year, the number of live pigs and the number of fertile sows nationwide increased month-on-month. The wholesale price of pork fell continuously 10 week, with a drop of about 6 yuan per kilogram.
Why can pork prices continue to fall? May Day holiday is approaching, will meat prices rebound? Yes, but when can the price of meat be reduced to more than ten yuan a catty?
Why can the price of pork drop 10?
Affected by African swine fever and other factors, pork prices have been rising until February this year. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the highest price of pork in the bazaar rose to 59.64 yuan per kilogram.
But from the fourth week of February, the price of meat began to fall, and it has fallen many times.
There are two reasons for the continuous decline in pork prices. One is that there is more supply, and the other is that there is less demand.
Look at the supply side first-
At the end of the first quarter, compared with the end of last year, the number of live pigs in China increased by 3.5% 10, and the number of fertile sows increased by 3 million, with an increase of 9.8%. Both of these figures have achieved a month-on-month increase.
Liu Tong, manager of the Statistics Department of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, believes that the pigs in the early stage were severely pressed and listed recently. Judging from the average daily market volume of Beijing Xinfadi white-striped pigs, the general trend is that the market volume is increasing.
Look at the consumer side-
Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that according to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, the national catering revenue decreased by 44.3% from June to March. Affected by the epidemic situation in COVID-19, the pork consumption was sluggish, which led to the continuous decline in the price of live pigs.
Zhu Zengyong believes that the main factors affecting the prices of pork and live pigs have changed from the supply side of live pigs to the consumption side of pork. Although residents' consumption has increased, it will take some time for catering consumption, group consumption and processing consumption to recover. It is expected that the prices of live pigs and pork will still show a seasonal trend.
In other words, the demand side currently dominates pork prices. If consumption remains weak, pork prices may continue to fall.
Will pork prices rebound in May 1 day?
Now, there is only a little more than one day before the May Day holiday. As the holiday approaches, many friends can't help but ask, will pork prices rise by the east wind of May Day holiday?
Judging whether the price of pork rises or falls during the May Day holiday depends on the supply side and the consumption side.
On the supply side—
Affected by a large number of pigs in the early stage, there are enough pigs in the market at present. Although it is not excluded that some slaughtering enterprises replenish their stocks for holiday consumption, the acquisition volume is still limited. Even if slaughter enterprises choose to buy in large quantities, once the breeding end is concentrated, it will "drag down" the pace of pig price increase.
At the same time, 20,000 tons of reserve meat was put into use on April 29th. Different from the previous two times, the amount of meat put into use has increased from 6.5438+0 million tons to 20,000 tons, which is self-evident.
From the consumer's point of view—
At present, pork consumption in China is "willing but unable" to boost pig prices.
The "May Day" holiday will increase the consumption of going out and the consumption of pork will also increase. However, the epidemic risk still exists, and the number of tourists is expected to drop significantly compared with previous years. Therefore, the probability of retaliatory consumption is small and the transmission to pork consumption is limited.
Zhu Zengyong said that according to the previous pork price market, pork prices will rise every May Day holiday. However, during the "May 1" period this year, the boosting effect of consumption was limited, and with the re-listing of frozen pork, it is difficult for pork prices to rebound significantly, and prices in some areas may rebound, but the overall price of live pigs in the country has not changed much.
Can the price of meat return to the previous level?
The price of pork has dropped by 10 week, but many friends feel that the feeling of price reduction is not obvious, or they can't afford it!
What's going on here?
In fact, although the price of pork has declined, it is still at a high level.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the wholesale price of pork was 20.62 yuan per kilogram in May 20 19, and reached a peak of 49.7 yuan per kilogram in February 2020. Since then, although it has been declining for several weeks, the wholesale price of pork in April 2020 is still 44.99 yuan per kilogram, up 12 1.44% year-on-year.
Throughout the country, pork prices are mostly "2 words". Although the price of meat has dropped, it has more than doubled compared with the same period of last year, but it has not been significantly reduced.
So, when can pork prices return to a reasonable level?
Experts in the industry said that the supply of piglets increased at the beginning of this year, and the stock of sows increased significantly. The supply of commercial pigs increased in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of commercial pigs increased by 202 1 in the first half of the year.
As for the price of pigs, experts said that the decline would be accelerated and 202 1 would gradually return to a reasonable price level.
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