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Soybean production reduction, should futures be bullish or bearish?
Lido.

For soybeans, you also need to refer to the situation of soybeans in the United States.

On 10, USDA released a monthly supply and demand report. This report did not revise the yield of American beans, but lowered the planting area of American beans, which reduced the yield of American beans by 45 million bushels. At the same time, it raised the export expectation and increased it by 75 million bushels. In addition, the initial inventory was reduced by 45 million bushels in the quarterly inventory report at the end of September, which led to a sharp decline in the final ending inventory.1. After the release of this report, the price of American beans did not appear the same rising market as that on the day of the release of the quarterly inventory report. This is mainly due to the limited downward adjustment of output data, which is only1230,000 tons less than expected last month. Although the export is expected to increase again and the inventory at the end of the period is greatly reduced, it is within the expected range of the market. 10 reported that although the ending inventory of American soybeans decreased significantly, the logic of the continuous upward trend of American soybean prices after September 30 was based on the substantial increase of exports. Since September 30, the main contract price of American soybeans has continuously increased by 70 cents/bushel, and the corresponding benefits have been basically realized. 10 In the case that the export data of American soybeans still remain good, the price of American soybeans will continue to climb, and it is expected to reach about 1 100 cents/bushel, but whether the price can rise sharply again depends on the actual growth of soybeans in South America. Before South American soybeans enter the critical growth period, the trend of US soybean prices will slow down, and there will be no recurrence of the previous strong market with continuous sharp rise. For the domestic vegetable oil market, the slowdown of the US soybean price trend will also stabilize the growth of domestic vegetable oil volatility range, and the future trend of domestic oil price will still tend to rise, but the pace will be weakened.