01, pig prices rose "truth"
So in the end what is the reason for the rise? The market has a lot to say, the more mainstream view that: First, because pork consumption into the peak season, consumption increased; Second, the price of hogs bottomed out, the inflection point of the rise; Third, some believe that the National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival before the pen concentrated, overdrawn hogs after the festival supply. Others say that the weather, epidemic factors, is also the pushers of rising pig prices. These reasons seem to have some sense, but I feel that these may be the surface phenomenon, there may be a deeper reason for the rise in hog prices, may be the truth of the rapid rise in hog prices:
That is, "raise the price of hogs, high price of meat," according to a friend working in a slaughtering enterprise, hogs According to a friend working in a slaughtering enterprise, the daily slaughtering capacity of their enterprises before the price increase is about 5000 heads, but in recent days the price of hogs rose to 7.5-8.0 yuan or so, the daily slaughtering capacity fell to about 2000 heads, however, the lack of pork walk part of the sale of pre-slaughtered low-priced frozen pork.
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Bureau of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, deputy director of the Secretary Kong Liang said that since March 2021, the production of piglets in large-scale farms are more than 30 million head, and continued to grow. As we all know, piglets born out of the impossible to throw away not to raise it, then the market supply of hogs will be relatively sufficient, September fell to 5 yuan, October rose to 8 yuan, is it out of the hogs will be reduced so quickly? Obviously not.
October 27, the hog market pullback reversal, hog prices across the country fell across the board, really a bit of a "fleeing" flavor, per catty down about 0.1-0.5 yuan. Among them, Jiangsu fell 0.5 yuan, down to 7.9-8.6 yuan / catty; Fujian Province fell 3-4 hair, 7.8-8.8 yuan / catty. Provinces specific offer situation is shown in the attached table:
02, pork prices "rising"
At the same time, the price of pork to follow the rise in pork on average about 3-5 yuan / catty, the mainstream price in the original 7-12 yuan, the overall rise to 10-12 yuan, the mainstream price of the original price. 12 yuan, the overall rise to about 10-15 yuan / catty.
Suiling, Heilongjiang, local pork prices rose an average of 3, 4 dollars, before the price increase in front of the leg 7-8 yuan / catty, pork 8 yuan / catty, pork ribs 15 yuan / catty, today's farmers market front leg 10 yuan / catty, pork 11 yuan / catty, pork ribs 17 yuan / catty. From around the white pork on October 26, prices have also risen significantly: Henan Wancheng District, white meat 25 yuan / kg, Shanxi Xiaxian white meat 24 yuan / kg, Jiangxi Shangyu County, white meat 22 yuan / kg, Laixi County, Hebei, 30 yuan / kg, Shandong Richeng District, 20 yuan / kg, the price of meat in other areas, please see the following table:
03, vegetable prices surged "Caught off guard"
Vegetable prices of all types are soaring, just about 1 month, some varieties directly doubled, really let many residents feel caught off guard, see what the vegetables that so expensive, a time to know what to buy, 6, 7 yuan a catty of cucumbers, 7, 8 yuan a catty of bean curd, more than 10 yuan a catty of small Spinach, in previous years, only in the New Year's time will have this price, but this year the fall has just ended, came to a downward spiral, no way many people can only pick some cheap vegetables.
But fortunately, recently, the relevant departments to raise the price of vegetables to give the fight, according to just Guangming net report, Jiayuguan City Market Supervision Bureau of a supermarket to raise the price of vegetables behavior to give the penalty of 100,000 yuan.
This year's rising vegetable prices, the industry analysis, one is part of the region's fall and winter season vegetable production convergence is not close enough, a little out of step, resulting in the emergence of short-term supply tight. Secondly, the recent days of southern precipitation, northern cooling rain and other adverse weather, the impact on vegetable production, bringing price fluctuations. Third, due to the rise in refined oil prices, the current No. 92 gasoline has reached about 7.5 yuan, No. 0 diesel also reached 7 dollars, resulting in higher freight costs. At present, look, with the weather good turn, and fall and winter production disconnect improvement, vegetable prices will gradually fall back, we do not worry too much.
04, egg prices across the board into the 5 yuan era
In recent times, egg prices have also risen significantly, wholesale prices around the line from 4.0-4.3 yuan per catty in September, rose to more than 5.0 yuan at present, the mainstream retail prices around the world has also risen again to 5.3-5.6 yuan around.
The latest egg price information shows that: Beijing area rose 0.09-0.18 yuan, the mainstream price of 5.13-5.37 yuan per catty; Dongguan egg prices fell by about 10 cents, 4.89-4.9 yuan per catty; Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei and other northern producing areas rose 0.1 -0.15 yuan, the mainstream price of 5.0 - 5.20 yuan / catty; Henan, Shandong producing areas rose 0.1-0.15 yuan, the mainstream price of 5.1-5.2 yuan / catty; Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and other southern Producing areas rose 0.1-0.25 yuan, the mainstream price of 5.0-5.27 yuan / catty ranging.
Friends, October 27th pig prices plummeted, then meat prices, vegetable prices, egg prices whether to fall back? For this issue, my personal view is that the 8 yuan hog price should be the ceiling of this rebound, there is a fall back is normal market fluctuations. The next pork prices will also fall with the price of pigs; chicken as for vegetable prices, egg prices, should be a stage high, especially the fall in pig prices will also play a certain role in leveling off, I believe that the recent vegetable prices, egg prices have the momentum of the pullback, egg prices 5 yuan (wholesale price) should be an important pressure level.