So what happened in the market? How to interpret the next market? The following focuses on the market situation of these commodities:
First, the pig price is adjusted back and forth, and the short-term market is difficult to be optimistic.
Although the price of live pigs has fluctuated repeatedly recently, the overall feeling is that the average price is developing slightly downwards. The average price of live pigs outside the country was 10.75 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan from yesterday.
Judging from the pig price in today's national market, as many as 2 1 province fell, and 5 provinces fell by more than 20 cents, namely: Beijing and Tianjin markets fell by 0. 1-0.2 yuan/kg, and the mainstream price 10.5- 10.8 yuan/kg; Anhui fell to 0.2 yuan, 10.4- 10.6 yuan/kg; Jiangsu fell to 0.3 yuan, 10.4- 10.6 yuan/kg; Xinjiang fell by 0. 1-0.2 yuan, 9.9- 10.2 yuan/kg, the lowest price in China.
Judging from the current market situation, the market is in a situation where there is a big difference between ups and downs:
On the one hand, although the price of pigs is not high at present, the price of pork is generally high. The price of pigs is above 10 yuan, while the price of pork everywhere is as high as 16-20 yuan/kg. The people don't recognize this price. According to some residents, now that the price of meat has gone up, there is less time to buy meat. Even if you buy meat, the quantity is not much.
Due to the decline in terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises will be affected in pig procurement and processing production.
At the same time, large-scale pigs were listed one after another in the early stage, and some large pig enterprises were listed in an orderly manner, which also increased the resistance to the rise of pig prices.
On the other hand, from the perspective of season, as soon as autumn arrives, the weather becomes cold and the rigid consumption of pork increases; Coupled with the recent school banquet and Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, it will be good for pig prices.
From the analysis of the above two aspects, it is difficult for the pig market to rise and fall in the first half of August, so the high probability will be a pattern of shock and horizontal development. Personally, I think the pig price will enter a rebound market from the end of August.
Second, the price of sheep is as low as the cost line, and it takes time to pick up.
Since the beginning of 2022, the trend of sheep price has been bad, and many friends who raise sheep feel great pressure. As far as the current price of 12- 15 yuan is concerned, a sheep can earn 180%, which may not even be enough.
According to industry analysis, there are three main reasons for the low price of sheep this year:
First, in recent years, more and more sheep have been raised, which is influenced by the domestic and international economy.
Some people find it difficult to go out to work and do business to make money. When they saw that raising sheep was quite profitable, some people entered the sheep market, resulting in an increasing number of sheep in the country.
Statistics show that in 20 18, there were 297140,000 sheep in China, 300.72 million sheep in 20 19, 306.55 million sheep in 2020 and 2026.5438+09.69 million sheep, with a net increase of 22.55 million in three years.
Faced with the sharp increase in sheep stocks, the market demand has hardly changed much, and the decline in sheep prices is the only choice.
Second, although the price of sheep is low, the price of mutton is still high.
People who like mutton may think that the price of mutton is similar to that at the beginning of the year. Whether the price of mutton is only 12 or a kilo in 3 yuan, the price of mutton is above 30, and the price of mutton is above 40. There is no decline at all.
The following are the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market is 28.98 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from yesterday; Beef was 76.70 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from yesterday; Mutton was 67.06 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from yesterday.
This is just the wholesale price. If the profit of retailer 3-5 yuan is added, the average price of mutton rises to 40 yuan.
It is precisely because of the high price of mutton and insufficient terminal consumption that it also has a certain negative impact on the price of mutton.
Third, the first half of the year is the traditional off-season of mutton consumption.
March-July is the off-season of mutton consumption every year, which is not a strong driving force for the price increase of sheep, so it is not difficult to understand the low price of sheep.
Regarding the market outlook, personally, from the analysis of market supply and demand, due to the poor price of sheep, some farmers have started to reduce their stocks or clear their stocks in May and June, so it is expected that the overall supply will decline. Coupled with the arrival of the traditional mutton consumption peak season after August, coupled with the increase of various festivals, mutton consumption will rise, which will enhance the pulling ability of sheep prices, so there will be a shock rebound in the second half of the year.
Third, food prices are negative and the market outlook is still optimistic.
In recent days, the trend of corn, wheat and other grain markets is generally poor, and there has been a large-scale decline.
There are 12 corn enterprises in Shandong that cut their prices by 0.3- 1.3 point, and the mainstream price of corn in Shandong dropped to 1.380- 1.472 yuan/kg. In the northeast of North China, there are also nearly 7 or 8 companies that cut prices by 0.5-0.8 cents/kg; The wheat market also fell in many places, ranging from 0.2- 1.0 points.
According to industry analysis, there are three main factors leading to the recent decline in food prices:
First, negative factors, the success of Ukraine's grain export, have a certain impact on the market atmosphere.
Secondly, the introduction of directional rice will affect the consumption of corn and wheat in feed.
Third, traders' mentality is unstable. Faced with the current situation and the influence of some negative information, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market of corn and wheat, and the shipments are willing to rise.
Personally, we don't have to worry too much about the market price of grain, because:
First, the current corn price is already at a low level, and it is almost impossible to continue to fall sharply.
Second, there have been some disastrous weather in some corn producing areas this year, which will also have some impact on corn production.
Third, the second half of the year is an important consumption period, which has a positive impact on the grain market price.
Therefore, personally, it is hard to say how happy the wheat market outlook is, but as far as the current corn price is concerned, a wave of rebound is a high probability event.
Fourth, the oil price "fell for four days in a row", and the probability of oil price reduction in 15 rounds increased greatly.
Due to the soaring oil price in the first half of this year, the pressure on people to drive has greatly increased. Compared with the same period of last year, when the oil price was the highest in June, a box of 50 liters of gasoline was filled, and the No.92 gasoline rose to 70.8 cents a liter in 9 yuan, which cost 100 yuan more.
In everyone's expectation, oil prices have shown a trend of "three consecutive losses". It can be said that a box of oil saves about 40 yuan.
Today is the eighth working day as the basis for oil price adjustment before the August 9th15th oil price reduction. Just now, good news came from the market. Today, the price of oil was lowered by 93 yuan/ton, and it was lowered by 5 1 yuan/ton, 4 1 yuan/ton and 52 yuan/ton respectively in the first three working days, and it was lowered by 238 yuan/ton in four days. In the first four days,
Although it ran aground when it failed to reach the standard of adjusting 50 yuan, the distance adjustment was only worse than that of adjusting 2 yuan. From this analysis, if the oil price drops slightly in the next two working days, it will trigger the downward adjustment mechanism, and the oil price reduction at 24: 00 15 on August 9 will become a reality.
Although oil prices have fallen for four or four days in a row, domestic oil prices are still subject to the price adjustment standard on July 26. The domestic mainstream price of No.92 oil and gas is still around 8.50 yuan/liter, and the mainstream price of No.95 gasoline is still between 9.02 and 9.30 yuan/liter.
The following is the specific quotation:
Dear friends, the oil price plummeted on August 9, or ushered in a "four-day losing streak"! Pig prices, sheep prices and food prices are all falling. what do you think? Can it go up? Welcome to express your views for your reference.